ROME — The Italian government is preparing a fallback strategy that would see it invoke an EU-devised accounting mechanism to unlock up to €12 billion in additional defense funding over three years, beginning in 2026. The move, outlined in a recently released Ministry of Finance document, would help Italy bridge the gap between its current defense budget and NATO’s increasingly demanding benchmarks.
Background: NATO Pressure and EU Fiscal Rules
Since Russia’s full-scale invasion of Ukraine in 2022, NATO member states have faced renewed pressure to strengthen military capabilities. At its 2025 summit, the alliance urged members to raise spending toward a target of 5 percent of GDP by 2035, with 3.5 percent allocated to “core defense” and 1.5 percent to defense- and security-related investments.
Italy, however, has thus far struggled to expand its military expenditures. In 2024, defense outlays totaled €29.18 billion, amounting to roughly 1.54 percent of GDP. Amid intensifying demands, Rome committed to hitting 2 percent in 2025, largely through reclassifications—such as shifting coast guard and other quasi-military units under defense purview.
But even achieving 2 percent falls well short of NATO’s long-term target. The challenge is further complicated by the European Union’s fiscal rules: member states are generally constrained to keep public deficits below 3 percent of GDP, or risk triggering infringement proceedings.
To ease this tension, the EU’s March 2025 ReArm/Defense Preparedness package introduced a special mechanism: the National Escape Clause (NEC). Under this rule, defense spending up to 1.5 percent of GDP may be exempted from deficit calculations for a limited period (through 2028), offering more budgetary flexibility to member states.
Italy’s Proposed Fallback Plan: How It Works
According to the finance ministry paper released earlier this month, Italy would first seek to utilize “SAFE” low-interest EU loans to fund defense projects. If that proves insufficient to meet the required spending trajectory, Rome would then decide whether to activate the NEC.
The document states:
“The decision on whether to activate the NEC is postponed until after the completion of the SAFE program, when its actual need will be assessed.”
Rome has already applied for €14.9 billion in SAFE funding, and must submit a detailed list of intended defense procurements to Brussels by November 30, 2025. The European Commission is expected to issue a decision by December 31.
If approved, the NEC would permit Italy to treat extra defense spending outside the standard deficit limits up to 1.5 percentage points of GDP annually between 2025 and 2028.
The finance document also cautions against an overly rapid spending ramp-up, warning that a “rush to buy” could inflate prices in defense markets.
Italy’s path toward 2028 envisages a gradual climb: from 2 percent in 2025 to 2.5 percent by 2028, with incremental percentage-point rises each year.
Notably, even under the NEC scenario, Italy reserves room for “rationalization strategies and optimizing spending”—i.e., seeking to deliver increased capability without fully proportionate budget growth.
Policy Dynamics and Expert Reactions
Italian officials have long expressed caution about triggering deficit-related penalties or undermining public finances. In June 2025, Defense Minister Guido Crosetto argued that extending the regime from four years to 20–30 years would better balance military needs with fiscal stability.
But fiscal hawks warn that applying the NEC may hinder Italy’s ability to bring its deficit sustainably below 3 percent in 2026. Rome currently projects the deficit to fall from its 2024 level of 3.8 percent to 2.8 percent—a key threshold for being eligible to invoke NEC relief.
Critics also point to political resistance at home. Expansion of defense spending faces stiff public skepticism. A recent Brookings analysis highlights Italy’s tight trade-off between welfare commitments and military expansion, noting that Italians have tended, historically, to deprioritize defense in favor of social spending.
Some defense analysts caution that too much reliance on accounting maneuvers could weaken the substantive link between budget and capabilities. Alessandro Marrone of IAI has repeatedly warned that NATO definitions of “defense spending” are not easily gamed via reclassification.
Still, Italy is not alone in exploring creative approaches. For instance, Rome has floated classifying its long-planned Messina Strait bridge project (linking Sicily to the mainland) as strategic infrastructure eligible under the 1.5 percent defense-investment window.
Additionally, Italy is pushing for a broader European mechanism to crowd in private investment in defense. In March 2025, it proposed a €200 billion “European Security and Industrial Innovation” guarantee scheme intended to stimulate defense and aerospace sectors across the bloc.
What Comes Next & Strategic Implications
If Italy proceeds with the NEC activation, the financial impact could be significant: up to €12 billion in additional defense commitment, spread across 2026 to 2028.
Key upcoming milestones include:
- November 30, 2025 — Italy must submit its proposed defense procurement list under the SAFE loan program.
- December 31, 2025 — Brussels will reply to the SAFE loan request.
- 2026 Budget Cycle — Rome will decide whether to activate the NEC, informed by SAFE outcomes and deficit forecasts.
- 2026–2028 — Execution of higher defense spending under the NEC if approved.
If successful, Italy’s move could help it credibly approach NATO’s long-term 5 percent target. But balancing public finance discipline, political legitimacy, and real capability gains will remain challenging.
Finally, other NATO members will observe closely. Italy’s approach might serve as a template for combining EU fiscal flexibility with increased military investment—particularly in states constrained by high debt burdens.
