China vs. U.S. Naval Expansion: Who Holds the Edge in the South China Sea?

Beijing and Washington are intensifying their maritime presence in the South China Sea. Recent developments—from the launch of new Chinese amphibious assault ships to the deployment of advanced U.S. missile systems—signal a mounting strategic competition. This analysis explores who currently holds the upper hand amid growing regional tensions.

China’s Expanding Fleet and Far-Seas Reach

In August 2025, China commissioned its fourth Type 075 amphibious assault ship, CNS Hubei, underscoring its growing power projection capabilities in the South Pacific region. Concurrently, the People’s Liberation Army Navy (PLAN) has regularly conducted far-seas mobile operations. In June, the Liaoning and Shandong carrier strike groups operated beyond the Second Island Chain—marking the first simultaneous deployment and sustained presence in the Western Pacific.

These developments reflect a strategic shift toward deep-water operations. China’s surface fleet is projected to surpass 400 vessels by the end of 2025—a near doubling since 2008.

U.S. Countermeasures and Regional Partnerships

The United States, though numerically behind in shipbuilding, is recalibrating its deterrent posture through technological force multipliers and regional networks.

Washington recently deployed the Navy–Marine Expeditionary Ship Interdiction System (NMESIS) to the northern Philippines. These mobile, coastal-based antiship missile systems extend U.S. reach—while aiming to complicate Chinese naval planning near Taiwan.

Furthermore, discussions are underway to deploy additional U.S. missile systems to the Philippines, reinforcing joint deterrence efforts.

Flashpoint: Escalating Tensions in the South China Sea

Naval confrontations continue to escalate. In mid-August, a high-profile collision occurred near Scarborough Shoal between Chinese and Philippine vessels. Philippine officials characterized the region’s situation as “incredibly tense.”

Simultaneously, at Second Thomas Shoal, China deployed over a dozen coast guard and militia vessels—some armed, supported by helicopters and drones—near the grounded BRP Sierra Madre—a longstanding Philippine outpost. Manila has condemned the actions as aggressive and in violation of international law.

Analysis—Strategic Balances and Risks

While China is rapidly expanding and experimenting with power projection far beyond its shores, the United States is compensating through alliances, force multiplication, and technological innovation.

China’s growing blue-water capabilities, including new assault ships and carrier operations, establish a new operational baseline. Meanwhile, U.S. reliance on regional basing, mobile missile systems, and joint exercises enhances deterrence without requiring parity in ship numbers.

Yet, both sides run a risk of miscalculation. Collisions and naval standoffs underscore heightened volatility. Escalation involving allies like the Philippines and Australia raises the stakes beyond bilateral rivalry.

Looking Ahead

Future dynamics will hinge on:

• Sustained growth in PLAN and U.S. naval modernization
• Expanded U.S.–Philippines and U.S.–Australia defense ties
• Responses to gray-zone tactics like “cabbage” encirclements and “Great Underwater Wall” surveillance networks

Neither superpower holds uncontested dominance—but China’s growing fleet and operational scope are raising the balance of pressure. The U.S. remains a potent counterweight through strategic partnerships and emerging defense systems. The coming months will reveal whether maritime stability can be preserved—or whether competition tips into conflict.

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