China’s Hypersonic Missile Expansion and the Race for Hypersonic Speed

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China’s Expanding Hypersonic Missile Force

China’s hypersonic missile expansion has become a central concern for U.S. defense planners as Beijing accelerates the development of advanced glide vehicles, dual-use missiles, and operational hypersonic platforms. As the U.S. Air Force and Missile Defense Agency work to field their own systems, the strategic race now centers on one question critical to both sides: how fast is hypersonic speed, and why do hypersonic weapons pose such a challenge to U.S. hypersonic missile defense systems?

Hypersonic speed is commonly defined as Mach 5 or higher—roughly 3,836 mph (6,174 km/h). But speed alone does not make hypersonic weapons disruptive. Their ability to maneuver unpredictably at these velocities is what gives China an emerging military advantage and stretches the limits of existing U.S. detection and interception capabilities.

China’s Hypersonic Weapons: DF-17, Glide Vehicles, and New Test Activity

DF-17 Ballistic Missile + Hypersonic Glide Vehicle (HGV)

China’s publicly revealed operational hypersonic system is the DF-17, which pairs a medium-range ballistic missile booster with a hypersonic glide vehicle capable of flying low, maneuvering laterally, and evading traditional radar tracking.

U.S. defense officials have consistently assessed the DF-17 as fielded and deployable, giving China a regional capability aimed at U.S. bases and naval assets in the Indo-Pacific.

Hypersonic Fractional Orbital Bombardment System (FOBS) Tests

In recent years, China reportedly tested a system that combined a fractional orbital bombardment vehicle (FOBS) with a maneuverable hypersonic glide body. While publicly available details remain limited, the test suggested advanced capabilities for global-range, non-ballistic flight paths designed to bypass U.S. early-warning systems.

Scramjet and Boost-Glide Research

Chinese state media and academic publications show continuing investment in:

• Scramjet-powered hypersonic cruise missiles
• High-enthalpy wind tunnels (Mach 25+)
• Thermal protection materials
• Advanced guidance and control algorithms

This broad research ecosystem suggests China aims for a multi-layered hypersonic portfolio similar to U.S. programs but with faster deployment timelines.

DF-17 Hypersonic Missile – Full Specifications

How Fast Is Hypersonic Speed? Understanding Mach 5 and Beyond

Hypersonic speed begins at Mach 5, but modern weapons often reach Mach 8–10 depending on their design.

Speed Benchmarks

System TypeTypical Speed
Hypersonic glide vehicles	Mach 5–10
Hypersonic cruise missiles	Mach 5–7
Ballistic missiles (mid-course)	Mach 15–20 (but predictable trajectories)

The difference lies in maneuverability, not raw velocity.
Ballistic missiles can travel faster, but their paths are fixed and easily modeled.
Hypersonic weapons fly lower and unpredictably, making them far more challenging to track and defeat.

Why Hypersonic Weapons Challenge U.S. Hypersonic Missile Defense Systems

1. Low-Altitude Maneuvering

Hypersonic glide vehicles fly at 30–60 km altitude, which is below ballistic missile mid-course height. This creates a coverage gap between:

• Ground-based radars optimized for higher ballistic arcs
• Space-based sensors optimized for boost-phase tracking

2. Compressed Reaction Time

At speeds over 4,000–7,000 mph, hypersonic weapons reduce the time available for:

• Detection
• Tracking
• Interceptor launch
• Engagement

In the Pacific, flight times could drop to minutes, significantly complicating U.S. response options.

3. Thermal and Plasma Effects

Heat generated at hypersonic speed can create a plasma sheath around the weapon, reducing its radar signature and complicating sensor tracking.

4. Maneuverability and Uncertain Pathing

Course adjustments during glide make it difficult for missile defense systems to calculate intercept points. Traditional interceptors, designed for predictable ballistic trajectories, require new seekers and guidance technology to counter such threats.

U.S. Hypersonic Missile and Defense Programs

While China deploys operational systems, the United States is pursuing multiple offensive and defensive programs:

Offensive Hypersonic Programs

• ARRW (Air-launched Rapid Response Weapon) – canceled after testing issues
• Hypersonic Attack Cruise Missile (HACM) – ongoing, scramjet-powered
• Long-Range Hypersonic Weapon (LRHW) – Army hypersonic missile under development

Defensive Systems

• Glide Phase Interceptor (GPI) – Navy program focused on intercepting hypersonic threats in glide phase
• Hypersonic and Ballistic Tracking Space Sensor (HBTSS) – new satellites for persistent tracking
• Aegis modernization – improved radar and interceptor capabilities

Progress is steady, but no complete operational defense against hypersonic glide vehicles currently exists.

Strategic Implications: A Shifting Indo-Pacific Deterrence Balance

China’s hypersonic missile expansion presents several major implications for U.S. forces and regional allies.

1. Increased Pressure on U.S. Naval Assets

Carrier strike groups operating near the first island chain face growing challenges from fast, maneuvering anti-ship weapons.

2. Greater Threat to Fixed Bases

U.S. facilities in Guam, Japan, and South Korea remain at risk due to the DF-17’s regional range and maneuverability.

3. A New Deterrence Formula

Hypersonic weapons alter escalation dynamics by offering:

• Rapid strike capability
• Precision against hardened or moving targets
• Unpredictable flight characteristics

Both the U.S. and China now view hypersonic systems as essential to shaping future deterrence and crisis response.

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